Low interest rates and low inflation fueled speculation the future will follow the fluctuation of go 四川民族学院欢迎您

Low interest rates and low inflation fuelled speculation experts: gold future will lower interest rate fluctuations follow low inflation fueled speculation the gold future will follow the wave each reporter Wang Xinyi at the beginning of this year, gold prices soared, in ordinary investors and set off a gold rush of hot, but consumers in the shop tumbled when, but few people can expect to. Just a few days later, the price of gold and the emergence of a sharp correction. The story is still going on, and the minutes of the Fed’s dovish meeting announced in the morning of February 18th are equivalent to giving the gold a dose of "stabilizer"". Zhao Xijun, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and securities of Renmin University of China, believes that the current low interest rate and low inflation situation in the global market encourage the breeding of speculation. Over the past few years, the U.S. economic situation is not expected, is the core factor leading to rising gold prices. So, can this factor continue to support gold in 2016? What risks are hidden behind the speculation of some people? To solve these problems, Zhao Xijun accepted the exclusive interview with the daily economic news (hereinafter referred to as NBD) reporter. Talk about the trend of gold, the future market will still fluctuate NBD: New Year’s day to the Spring Festival, gold prices soared, but this week there has been a sharp pullback. What do you think is the reason for the slump? Zhao Xijun: there are many factors in the rise and fall of gold. In general, gold is priced in dollars, so the price is directly related to the fluctuation of the dollar. If the dollar is stronger, the price of gold will drop, and the dollar will weaken, and the price of gold will rise. So when we analyze the gold trend, we have to analyze the dollar trend. From this point of view, from last year, the Federal Reserve announced interest rates, until this year’s Spring Festival, the market has been very strong interest rate expectations, that is, the dollar is expected to rise strong, which began to weaken with gold. But years later, the economic data released by the United States, in addition to outside employment, other data are not ideal, the Fed has news, the possibility of interest rate cut, which leads to the dollar began to weaken, it means that everyone wants to invest $than anything else, that gold would become a choice, resulting in gold began the price. It’s the same thing that comes down later. NBD: some analysts believe that the changes in gold prices over the past half month are related to fluctuations in the global capital market. What do you think this is related to? Zhao Xijun: it should be said that this relationship is not direct. As I said earlier, the relationship between gold price and the dollar trend is direct, and the changes in the global capital market are also closely related to the trend of the dollar. Since the end of 2014, the U.S. economy has been moving better than other countries, with the dollar rising interest rates, the U.S. dollar stronger, the U.S. market stronger. This trend has continued to the present, and although the dollar has gone a bit weaker in the near future, it is still better than the euro and the yen, so in comparison, the U.S. market is better than Europe and japan. NBD: how do you judge the trend of gold in this year? Zhao Xijun: the trend of gold is always in dispute with the trend of the dollar

低利率低通胀助长投机 专家:黄金未来还会跟着波动   低利率低通胀助长投机 黄金未来还会跟着波动   ◎每经记者 王辛夷   今年初黄金价格一路飙升,在普通投资者中又掀起了一股抢金热,可是在消费者挤爆金店的时候,却很少有人能够预料到,仅仅几天以后,金价又出现了大幅回调。   剧情还在不断上演,2月18日凌晨公布的美联储鸽派会议纪要相当于又给黄金打了一针“稳定剂”。   中国人民大学金融与证券研究所副所长赵锡军认为,当前全球市场低利率、低通胀的现状,助长了投机行为的滋生。而过去一段时间,美国经济形势不及预期,是导致黄金价格上涨的核心因素。   那么,这个因素能不能在2016年继续支撑黄金走强?部分人投机的背后又隐藏着哪些风险?针对这些问题,赵锡军接受了《每日经济新闻》(以下简称NBD)记者的独家专访。   谈黄金走势未来的市场仍将波动   NBD:元旦到春节,黄金价格一路飙升,可是本周又出现了大幅回调。您认为这样大涨大跌背后的原因是什么?   赵锡军:黄金的涨跌有很多因素,一般情况下,黄金是以美元来计价的,所以价格跟美元波动有直接联系,如果美元走强,金价就会下降,美元走弱,金价就会上涨。   所以我们分析黄金走势时,必须要分析美元的走势。从这个角度来看,从去年美联储宣布加息,一直到今年春节之前,市场一直有着非常强的加息预期,也就是美元还要走强的预期,这就带着黄金开始走弱。   可是开年以后,美国公布的经济数据,除了就业以外,其他数据都不理想,美联储又传消息,加息的可能性在减少,这就导致美元开始走弱,也就意味着大家都希望投资美元以外别的东西,那么黄金就成为一个选择,导致黄金开始涨价。之后出现回落,是同样的道理。   NBD:一些分析认为,黄金价格在过去半个月里的变化,和全球资本市场的波动有关。您认为这是什么关系?   赵锡军:应该说这个关系并不是直接的。就像我刚才所说的,黄金价格和美元走势的关系是直接的,而全球资本市场的变化同样也和美元走势密切相关。   从2014年底开始,美国经济就一直走得比别的国家要好,连带着美元加息,美元走强,美国市场走强。这个趋势一直延续到现在,尽管近期美元相对走得弱了一点,但是仍然还是比欧元和日元要好,所以相比较来讲,美国市场也要比欧洲和日本的市场要好。   NBD:您怎么判断黄金在今年的走势?   赵锡军:黄金的走势总是和美元走势纠葛在一起的,所以就要判断美国经济的情况。   现在看来,美国经济的表现可能并不会像去年预期那么好。去年底大家预期今年要升息两到三次,但是在今年开年以后,就出现了不太理想的状态,导致现在美元从走强突然走弱,黄金价格就突然从弱走强。   我们只能判断的是,由于对美国经济的预期跟之前不一样,而且这种预期越发不清楚,美元的走势就很难清楚判断,这也会导致投机性的力量越来越强,就让市场没有方向感。在这种情况下,就会出现一个波动的市场,美元波动,黄金也会跟着波动。   谈抑制投机引导资金到社会保障领域   NBD:欧洲和日本先后推出了负利率政策,而美元的加息预期也随着美联储主席耶伦的讲话有所弱化,这样的货币政策会对金价的未来走势有何影响?   赵锡军:和金价关系最密切的是美元,其他货币价格、货币政策的变化,都不足以直接影响黄金价格,但是其他货币的价格和政策变化,会影响到这种货币和美元之间的汇率,从而间接地影响黄金。   如果说可以影响到黄金的,应该是国际市场对于黄金的需求,如果需求量保持一定水平,黄金价格就不会有很大的变化。但是黄金需求量最大的市场不是日本,也不是欧洲,而是中国和印度,这两个市场占到全球黄金需求的一半左右,现在看到这两个区域并没有发生很大的变化。   NBD:目前全球的利率水平还是比较低的,而且不管是美欧还是中国,通胀水平也很低,这会对投资者产生什么样的影响?   赵锡军:利率水平较低,流动性比较充足的情况下,或者说在钱不值钱的情况下,大家的心态是要赶紧买点什么东西。通胀水平低,利率低,也就是除了钱,其他东西的价格都相对便宜,那就会想着买点什么。   几十年前可能是买各种生活必需品,但是现在大家不担心生活必需品了,就开始大量地投机。而投机是没有定性的,价格高的时候大家抛售,价格就下来,价格低的时候买入,价格就上涨,是一波一波的。不像投资,是真的需要生产经营活动来创造价值的,也就是可以判断的。   所以我们看到中国老百姓什么都敢买,风险再大的东西也敢投资,这就是投机。   NBD:但现在不少老百姓手里都有点积蓄,您认为他们不应做些理财吗?   赵锡军:这就要看中国老百姓缺什么。我们缺的是教育、医疗、住房等保障,老百姓拿自己的积蓄来投机,就是因为担心退休了以后怎么办,生病了怎么办,孩子要上学,结婚要买房怎么办。如果我们把这些问题都解决掉了,老百姓就不会那么热衷于投机。   所以美国、欧洲的老百姓很少会炒这个炒那个,要让老百姓有更长远的目光,不把钱投在风险很大的事情里,就需要在保障制度上下功夫。   如果我们通过各种制度的建设,引导这些资金到社会保障里来,让百姓对未来的担忧少一点,投机行为也就会少一些。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: