The Fed rate hike is expected to weaken the road or continue to rebound in the price of gold-happynewyear

The Fed rate hike is expected to weaken gold road rebound or continue, 2000, reporter Kim editor Yu Yong in 2016 January, compared with the other assets in the global market, boosting the risk aversion, gold’s performance can be quite strong. Statistics show that in January the international gold price rose 57 U.S. dollars a month, or 5.4%, become a rare "bright color" on the market this month". Many market participants believe that the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to postpone and the market to enhance the risk aversion, the current gold price is still expected to rebound. But during the Spring Festival, there will be given the factors such as the U.S. payrolls data released this weekend, starting from the perspective of risk control, we recommend investors to choose the best positions. Looking back on the market in January this year, the global stock market, commodities and other assets repeatedly suffered heavy losses, while gold assets are unique because of its hedging function. In the view of Minsheng Bank financial markets analyst Tang Xiangbin, the Fed faces capital outflows in emerging markets, the impact of interest rate cycle into the country, and the superposition of previously part of geopolitical risk factors, the market risk aversion can be improved rapidly, also caused the January gold price soaring. In Shandong gold chief analyst Jiang Shu’s view, although the risk aversion is the current market to boost the important force of gold price, but the market in March the Fed’s interest rate expectations weakened, is also an important reason can not be ignored. Earlier, the Fed announced the end of the end of 1 meeting of interest rates announced to maintain the federal funds rate in the 0.25%-0.50% range. At the same time, FOMC said in a statement: "the committee is paying close attention to the global economic and financial development, and evaluates its impact on the employment market and inflation." The market believes that this statement reduces the possibility of the Fed’s interest rate hike at the next meeting in March, the Fed’s "dovish" speech, but also make the gold rally has more support. In terms of funding, there are signs of a continued inflow of gold into the gold market in January. According to Bloomberg statistics of global gold ETF position data show that in January, gold ETF gold holdings increased by nearly 54 tons, a monthly increase of 3.7%, gold holdings increased to 1515.55 tons. This year, the gold ETF gold holdings increased significantly, indicating that investment demand for gold began to improve signs. On the other hand, the greater impact on the short-term gold price is the short back up, leading to a substantial increase in net head size of gold futures. By the end of January, CFTC gold futures cumulative non commercial net size increased by nearly 40000 hands, monthly growth of up to 210%. Therefore, Tang Xiangbin believes that, from the current international gold futures multi short positions change, short positions are the main force to promote short-term rebound in gold prices. After strong performance in January, the gold market continued to be driven by the demand for security on Monday. The gold price in the Asian market returned to the top of the $1120 ounce, reaching a peak of $1123 an ounce. From the short-term trend, Tang Xiangbin believes that from a technical point of view, the price of gold is still maintained a rebound trend, and expected before the Spring Festival, the international price of gold is still expected to maintain strong technical theory

美联储加息预期减弱金价反弹之路或延续   ⊙记者 金苹苹 ○编辑 于勇   2016年1月份,与全球市场的其他资产相比,在避险情绪的助推下,黄金的表现可谓相当强劲。统计显示,1月份国际金价全月上涨57美元,涨幅为5.4%,成为该月市场上难得的“亮色”。   多位市场人士认为,受到美联储加息预期延后以及市场避险情绪提升的影响,当前的黄金价格仍有望反弹。但在春节期间,鉴于本周末将有美国非农数据公布等因素,从风险控制的角度出发,建议投资者最好选择空仓过节。   回顾今年1月份的市场,全球股市、大宗商品等资产屡屡遭受重创,而黄金资产则因为其避险功能而显得独树一帜。   在民生银行总行金融市场部分析师汤湘滨看来,美联储进入加息周期、新兴市场国家面临资本流出的冲击,以及此前部分地缘政治风险因素的叠加,使得市场中的避险情绪得以快速提升,也导致了1月份黄金价格的飙涨。   而在山东黄金首席分析师蒋舒的观点中,虽然避险情绪是当前市场上助推金价的重要力量,但市场对3月份美联储加息预期的减弱,也是不容忽视的重要原因。   此前,美联储在1月末的议息会议结束后宣布维持联邦基金利率于0.25%-0.50%区间。同时FOMC在声明中称:“委员会正密切关注全球经济与金融发展,并评估其对就业市场和通胀的影响。”市场认为这一表态降低了美联储在3月的下次会议上加息的可能性,美联储的“鸽派”发言,也令金价的反弹有了更多的支撑。   从资金上看,1月份也有短期资金持续流入黄金市场的迹象。根据彭博统计的全球黄金ETF持仓数据显示,1月份黄金ETF持金量增长近54吨,月增幅达3.7%,持金量增长至1515.55吨。今年以来,黄金ETF持金量明显增长显示出对黄金的投资需求开始出现改善的迹象。另一方面,对短期金价影响更大的则是空头回补导致黄金期货净多头头寸大幅增长。截至1月下旬,CFTC黄金期货非商业净多头头寸规模累积增加了近40000手,月度增幅高达210%。也因此,汤湘滨认为,从目前国际黄金期货多空头寸的变化看,空头的平仓是推动短期金价反弹的主要力量。   在经历了强劲表现的1月后,本周一黄金市场继续受到避险需求的推动,亚市盘中金价重新回到1120美元 盎司上方,最高触及1123美元 盎司一线。   从短期的走势来看,汤湘滨认为从技术层面看,金价仍然保持着反弹趋势,并预计在春节前国际金价仍有望保持技术上的强势。   “但是我们认为春节期间可能成为国际市场发生变化的时间窗口。”汤湘滨提醒道,“首先,由于美联储最新的议息会议结果符合市场预期,国际市场对于其在3个月加息的预期有所减弱,近期大宗商品市场以及美国股市的跌幅有所缩小,这显示市场的避险情绪开始缓解;其次,目前境内外黄金的价差明显缩小,这可能暗示了春节后中国对黄金的需求将大幅萎缩,中国节日因素对金价上涨的支撑也将消失。因此,如果无法出现新的风险事件刺激市场,应防范国际金价在春节期间进入调整或回落的风险。”   蒋舒也认同该观点,他表示,由于春节期间我国相关市场休市,因此黄金市场很容易因为外围市场的影响而出现相关风险。尤其是本周末即将公布的非农数据,很可能成为金价继续上行的障碍。因此从风险控制的角度出发,也建议投资者在假日期间空仓为妙。但是从更为长期的角度看,蒋舒认为虽然金价在1月份出现反弹,但是鉴于美联储已经进入加息周期,美元趋势性走弱可能不大,黄金在2016年仍难回牛市。   汤湘滨从通胀的角度分析认为,从新年首月的国际市场表现看,国际市场上的“通胀预期”依然较弱,对国际金价的支撑也并不强。故而国际金价更容易受益于市场避险情绪的上升。   “总体而言,在今年各项不确定的风险因素都明星增加的背景下,市场的避险情绪将反复出现,因此黄金大概率将维持在一个较大的区间反复震荡的走势。”THE_END 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: